Holy Roman Empire - Chapter 166

Chapter 166: Chapter 53, Entry to France

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On March 21, 1851, the Tsarist Government appointed Duke Alexander Menshikov as a special envoy, sent to Constantinople to negotiate with the Ottoman Government.

Upon hearing this news, the diplomatic world was in an uproar. Duke Alexander Menshikov had once served as the Governor-General of Finland, commanded wars against the Persia and Ottomans, and had been the Commander of the Black Sea Fleet as well as the Minister of the Navy.

As a core figure in the ruling group of the Tsarist Government, Duke Alexander Menshikov’s role as a negotiating envoy was enough to demonstrate the Russians’ seriousness.

This attention seemed to send a signal to the outside world that Russia wanted to resolve the issue through negotiations.

However, considering that Duke Menshikov was a member of the War Party and had also commanded the last Russian-Ottoman war, it seemed that this was also a show of force to the Ottomans.

Before heading to Constantinople, Duke Menshikov first went to Serbia to inspect the troops stationed there, and then to Sevastopol to inspect the Black Sea Fleet.

Russia even conducted a landing exercise targeting Constantinople itself. After the exercise was completed, on March 12, Duke Menshikov finally boarded the warship Thor and set off for Constantinople.

Menshikov was not a qualified diplomat; he himself despised diplomacy and etiquette and as a staunch member of the War Party, he opposed any concession to the Ottoman Empire.

Franz was not optimistic about the negotiations in Constantinople; how could the Ottoman Empire possibly compromise with the Russians, who had such a vast appetite?

While the Russians were negotiating with the Ottoman Government, Austria’s Foreign Ministry was also busy, engaging in its own diplomatic talks with the Ottoman Empire, except Franz paid little attention to them and directly authorized the Envoy to Constantinople, Mr. Metternich, to take charge.

Belvedere Palace

It was a fine and sunny afternoon, and Franz was fishing. It seemed that luck was not on his side today, as the fish simply weren’t biting.

In contrast, his father, Archduke Carl, had already caught three, with the largest weighing three pounds. Unless something unexpected occurred, this unlucky fish would probably appear on the dinner table tonight.

The crisp voice of the maid rang out, “Your Majesty, Mr. Metternich requests an audience.”

“Take him to the pavilion, I’ll be right there,” Franz said indifferently.

Having said that, Franz put down his fishing rod and said to his father and brothers not too far away, “You guys carry on, I have to go to work.”

Archduke Carl blurted out without thinking, “Go ahead, you poor child, may God bless you with good luck!”

Franz was immediately at a loss for words; he had wanted to say “eat the food of misfortune.” However, realizing there was no such proverb in Austria and that it would not be understood even if he said it, he decided to let it go.

Good upbringing led him to filter out his father’s words, but he glared fiercely at his brothers who were chuckling at the spectacle.

Perhaps remembering days dominated by dreadful homework, the young lads wisely toned down their laughter, much to Franz’s satisfaction as he departed.

He might not be able to do anything about Archduke Carl, but could he not handle a few mischievous lads? Guided by the principle that shared joy is double joy, Franz had replicated the painful experiences he had gone through onto his brothers.

There wasn’t much to it, just a person being watched by over thirty tutors, with endless classes and homework.

Franz was a good elder brother, though, and took care of the educational expenses himself. The European nobility values education for their children highly, and there was no one to plead their case on this matter.

Consequently, the three youngsters turned into well-behaved children. They were not academic overachievers, but for the sake of the idyllic life under the blue sky and white clouds, they promptly surrendered to their wicked elder brother.

Otherwise, without this surrender, they’d still be toiling over books, with no chance of nurturing their nobility through leisure such as fishing.

Perhaps in Archduke Carl’s eyes, Franz was indeed an unfortunate fellow. What’s so great about being an Emperor? Endless official duties every day, and even vacation time is not exempt from issues cropping up.

Regarding his father’s opinion, Franz never expressed any. If he had the slightest ambition, he would be the one sitting on the throne right now.

In Archduke Carl’s view, it was better to enjoy leisure rather than labor as the Emperor.

Under such notions, Archduke Carl often looked at Franz with pity.

Regarding this, Franz was helpless. He couldn’t exactly say, “Without my efforts, you, a grain borer of Habsburg Family, would soon have no more grain to bore into.”

“Your Majesty, news has just arrived. The French have intervened in Jerusalem, and the Catholic Church hopes to have our support,” Metternich reported.

This news made Franz merely sigh at the strength of historical revisionism. But upon further analysis, it was an inevitable outcome.

Louis-Napoleon-Bonaparte, aspiring to restore the monarchy, needed to gain public support. The current crisis in the Holy Land seemed like trouble to others, but to him, it was an opportunity.

It would not only increase France’s foreign influence but also secure the support of Catholics. How could he refuse such a beneficial double gain?

As for the consequences, it simply meant offending the Russians and Ottomans. Others may fear the Russian bear, but he did not. After all, with the German Federation in the way, the Russians couldn’t get through, so what was there to fear?

The position of the Ottomans could be ignored; the current Ottomans were no longer what they once were, any European Power could step on them at will.

After some thought, Franz said, “So it seems the French have already entered the fray. It looks like the Russians are in trouble; this Russian-Ottoman war might not be easy to fight.

But this has nothing to do with us. Since the French have already made their move in Jerusalem, and given their substantial strength, I believe they do not need our help. We can just offer them our verbal support.”

Help? The French government would never allow Austria to intervene. This is the time for Louis-Napoleon-Bonaparte to gain prestige, so how could he let Austria join in and dilute his “merits”?

Metternich furrowed his brow and said, “Your Majesty, the situation is not that simple. It’s not just the Russians who are troublesome, we have our own problems too.”

Franz was slightly startled; he hadn’t seen how this was related to Austria.

Metternich explained, “Your Majesty, the involvement of the French in this conflict means that Louis-Napoleon-Bonaparte is ready to seize power, and it won’t be long before we hear of his restoration.

By that time, a pro-English French government will emerge. Internationally, Britain and France will cooperate even more closely.

The world would then see a bipolar structure, the Russian-Austrian Alliance and the British and French Alliance. As the Russo-Turkish War breaks out, the contradictions between the two major alliances will deepen, and might even lead to war.

Britain and Russia have geographical advantages, so the likelihood of a full-scale war between the two countries is low, at most there would be localized conflicts.

However, it is different for us and the French. Under the contradictions between the two major alliances, Austria and France are very likely to go to war directly.”

Franz was stunned, Metternich’s analysis made him wonder who exactly was the transmigrator.

He had considered the possibility of a war between Austria and France as well, though he had always thought it would be over the issue in Italy. Now it seemed that the contradictions between the two alliances were the real fuse for future Austro-French conflicts.

Against this backdrop, Austria only had two paths to choose from. Either join hands with the Russians and deal a heavy blow to the French in the upcoming war. Without this fighter, the British would also become timid.

Or do nothing and wait for the Prussia-France conflict to escalate. The French have been coveting the Rhineland region for a long time, and as industrialization progresses, the Prussian Government has been placing more and more value on this land, with almost no chance of concession.

The Rhineland region’s contribution to the strength of German industry in later years is immense, and its mineral resources are indispensable and irreplaceable to the Kingdom of Prussia.

As for the possibility of compromise between the two countries? Franz could answer clearly—impossible, regardless of Bismarck’s multiple promises in history to cede the Rhineland region to the French.

In the end, the Prussian Government would rather risk military adventure and battle with the French than actually give up the region.

This region is the future of the Kingdom of Prussia. Since the beginning of industrialization, the Prussian Government has realized its importance. If the Kingdom of Prussia gave up this area, then the Ruhr Industrial District would be at risk.

Franz frowned and said, “It seems like there’s nothing we can do right now. The French getting involved in the Russo-Turkish War is very beneficial for our prepared strategy to advance west.

Once the westward strategy is complete, having integrated the South German Region, the balance of power between Austria and France would change. Even if a war occurs in the future, our chances of victory are great.”

It was not Franz’s confidence speaking, but the fact. An Austria that had integrated the South German Region would see an increase in strength that was certainly not just a trivial amount.

In this era, many people overestimated France due to the psychological shadow left by Napoleon sweeping the European continent, overlooking the fact that today’s France was no longer the France of that time.

Whether in terms of overall national strength or military combat capability, they were no longer the world-trembling superpower of the past.

Metternich had a fear of France. Whenever there was talk of a war breaking out with the French, he took a pessimistic view, as if Napoleon had returned.

This was a problem Franz could not help with. Metternich was a politician who had lived through that era, personally participating in the anti-French wars, and Napoleon had left him with a psychological shadow, which was simply unsolvable.

Fortunately, the performance of the Austrian army back then wasn’t too bad; there was back-and-forth fighting without getting swept away by the French in one go, and the generals who had lived through those times weren’t intimidated.

The military hardliners, led by Marshal Radetzky, were utterly unresigned to their past defeats and were looking for an opportunity to settle the score.

If the military hadn’t been strong, Franz would have actually been timid himself. Who would have known that the performance of the Austro-Hungarian army in later years would leave him with the impression of worthlessness?

Franz, who had personally understood the Austrian army, was very clear that the Austrian Empire was definitely not equivalent to the Austro-Hungarian Empire; whether in terms of morale or soldier training, they were much stronger than during the Austro-Hungarian period.

Metternich shook his head and said, “Your Majesty, an internally divided France is indeed negligible. But once Louis-Napoleon-Bonaparte is restored, the infighting within the French government will be suppressed.

At that time, we must consider the scenario of Prussia and France joining forces. As long as we exert enough pressure on them, the two countries might well reach a compromise.”

Franz was taken aback. If Austria annexed the South German Region, there would be a dramatic change in strength.

Then both Prussia and France would feel threatened and, to eliminate this threat, as long as one side made concessions, it seemed not impossible for them to join forces and deal a hard blow to Austria.

Then Franz shook his head again, thinking it was too early to worry about that problem. The French were very proud, and it was nearly impossible to expect them to make concessions to the Kingdom of Prussia before experiencing defeat.

It was certain that even if France won against Austria, the French would not allow Prussia to unify the Germany Region. So would the Prussian Government take the risk for this?

If it were a single duel between France and Austria or Prussia and Austria, the Russians might sit back and watch, using their power to weaken Austria; but if Prussia and France joined forces, as long as the Russians did not want to be isolated, sending troops would become inevitable.

The French, being far away, wouldn’t feel the threat of the Russians, but the nearby Kingdom of Prussia could not afford to ignore it. Who knows, in the end, Austria might get crippled by a joint Prussia-France assault, and then the Kingdom of Prussia could be wiped out first by the Russian-Austrian forces.

Franz thought for a moment and said, “It seems that for the time being, we need to be more restrained. It would be troublesome to arouse the wariness of other nations.”

Regardless of the alliance, all must speak in terms of interests. Once interests clash, turning against each other is faster than flipping a page.

To avoid the worst-case scenario, Franz opted to play it safe for now.